Tuesday, November 13, 2012

How the Yankee Postseason Will Continue

If you've been paying attention to the Yankee post-season, and have been listening carefully, then you've probably noticed that nothings happening.  We haven't signed anyone, not even the guys who want to play for us (Kuroda and Mariano I'm looking at you!), and we haven't pulled off a block buster trade.  The Yankees have been linked to Mike Napoli, but probably because Russell Martin is getting considerable attention from other teams.  So how will the Yankees proceed this winter?  Pretty much the way they have been thus far: by doing nothing.  Here's why...

The Yankees have aimed to be under $189 million in 2014, but this number includes every player on the 40-man roster, not to mention all the benefits, travel expenses, health insurance premiums etc, that Cashman said was about $10-12 million, putting the effective payroll goal at $177 million.  Payroll is decided on the average annual value of a players contract, so even though A-Rod is set to make $25 million in 2014, the average annual value of his contract is $27.5 million.  The Yankees currently have 4 players signed into 2014:

CC Sabathia - $24.4 million
A-Rod - $27.5 million
Teixeira - 22.5 million
Jeter - $9.5 million (Player's Option)

Total - $83.9 million

In other words, nearly half of the projected payroll budget for 2014 is already allotted to 4 players.  The Yankees also are interested in signing Cano to a long term deal after next season, and though no one knows how much he'll make, he's currently playing for $15 million.  Signing Cano will give the Yankees 5 players that are making well over half of their projected payroll. 

The Yankees currently have a whole host of openings that they're unwilling to spend big on.  They can probably get around this by offering a lot of 1 year deals, but this really just pushes the problem off to next year.  So in conclusion, Cashman either needs to pull off a Red Sox/Dodgers style salary dump trade of Granderson, A-Rod and Teixeira, or we'll be seeing a lot of names in our lineup that we're not familiar with. 


Rich Mahogany said...

This just happened!


Rich Mahogany said...

As for what you actually wrote, I had no idea that payroll is calculated that way. I thought it was based on what the team actually pays the players each year, but that would be too easy to understand.

It's pretty clear that the only way for the Yankees to attain the flexibility they need is to pull off that salary dump trade. And I would normally think that no team would ever take on ARod, let alone ARod, Teixeira and Granderson. But I didn't understand why the Dodgers would take on Beckett and Crawford, and I don't understand why the Marlins would trade away three reasonably-priced players in Johnson, Reyes and Buehrle. Maybe the Marlins are run by idiots and they are clearing payroll to make room for ARod and Teixeira. I can only wish.

What's annoying about all this is the Yankees supposedly "got it" when they signed Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett in the same offseason. They received tremendous praise for using their financial advantage to sign very good players rather than waste it on average players. Yet Teixeira is now badly overpaid and Burnett is getting paid to pitch for Pittsburg. Factor in ARod and these sorts of large deals can go terribly wrong in a hurry.

As usual I have no idea what the Yankees will or should do, but here is one fearless prediction. The Yankees will sign Melky Cabrera on a one-year deal to replace Swisher. This is the definition of a Band-Aid solution but that is what the Yankees need right now while they figure out if they can shed payroll, especially if they want to move Granderson.

Fernando Alejandro said...

The Toronto trade was the kind of blockbuster salary dump we could have done, had Teixeira and A-Rod played better this season, didn't have no-trade clauses, and were signed to more reasonable contracts. In other words, we have to pray for them to play great next year, and that they'll be willing to waive their no trade clauses after next season!

I wouldn't mind signing Melky to a 1-year deal. The Yankees are all about redeeming PED users (Giambi, A-Rod, Pettitte etc.).

Rich Mahogany said...

The Yankees like to sign the player first, preferably to a very large and lengthy deal that provides bonuses for reaching home run milestones, and then see him exposed as a PED user. To bring Melky back for just one year after he already got suspended will take require intense soul-searching, and many people who run the Yankees are known to have no souls.

The Marlins are not done trading their established players away. Maybe the Yankees will get in on it.