Monday, November 18, 2013
Maybe It's Not Just Our Poor Player Development
Hindsight is 20-20, no one wants to pay an expert just to recount what has already happened. That's why History majors are always broke. You pay experts instead to give some clarity into the future, and the more accurate their projections are, the more valuable they are. Today I read this article, which takes us back to 2007, when the Yankees declined to negotiate a trade with the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera, because they wanted Phil Hughes and either Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy. In hindsight, we see this as the best trade idea ever. In the moment, the Yankees declined. That was back when Phil Hughes was the next Roger Clemens, Chamberlain was the next Mariano, and Kennedy was the next Mussina. At least that's what the hype said, and I'm sure the experts projected them along that trajectory as well. Why else would you pass on Miguel Cabrera? Instead, Hughes became a 6th starter, Joba became a middle releiver, Kennedy has become a back end starter in the national league, and Cabrera has been one of the more prolific hitters in the majors. Could we have seen this coming? Well given that Cabrera was already a great hitter in 2007, and only 24, I have to think that they saw something there. But back then, Cabrera had attitude problems, the Yankees had lots of offense, and the Yankees needed pitching. Hindsight is 20-20, but man do I wish we made that trade!