Friday, March 11, 2011
Gardner vs. Crawford
I was recently in a conversation about Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner and how the Red Sox have the edge on offense in that position (though not as a whole), and it led me to look up their stats from last season. Though Crawford is clearly the better power hitter, I wonder if Gardner could give him a run for his money in batting average for 2011. Crawford had a great season last year hitting .307 with 19 homeruns 90 RBI's and 47 stolen bases. He led the league in triples (which he's done 4 times in his career). By comparison Gardner had a .277 batting average with 5 homeruns 47 RBI's and tied Crawford with 47 steals. The only place where Gardner takes the edge is that he had a .383 OBP vs. Crawford's .356. Gardner had almost 100 fewer plate appearances than Crawford last season as well. So the question is, if they both stay healthy, could Gardner overtake Crawford in batting average and stolen bases? Gardner was batting in the .300's before his wrist injury, and he's as patient an eye as we've seen at the plate. If Gardner bats out of the lead off spot as many think he should, then he should have comparable plate appearances as Crawford. There's only a 2 year age difference between them, and they are both in what many consider the prime age for baseball players. Though Crawford will undoubtedly hit for more power, I'm making a fearless prediction that Gardner will take the batting average and stolen bases from Crawford this season. If not, no one will remember this post by the end of the season, even though it will stand in cyber space for all time, haunting and condeming me for all eternity.
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5 comments:
I've always seen Crawford as a much better batter/player, but I can't deny the numbers. 100 more at bat is a big difference so maybe you are right, and the team does need you to be right. This is going to be a challenging year for me as a fan. =/
I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic about the season. The truth is, the Red Sox and Rays have as many rotation question marks as we do, and Colon, Garcia, and Nova (pending his start today) have shown us enough to think that they could have some big league success this season. Ultimately we'll see, but I'm feeling better about the Yankees than I did at the start of spring training.
Gardner's high OBP (due to speed and tremendous plate discipline) and good defense are enough to make him valuable. It's easy to see he's fast, but he also seems to have bad baserunning instincts. If he can make the most out of his speed, he can be one of the best LFs in baseball.
Crawford is a very good player, but there's one major difference between him and Gardner that you didn't mention: their contracts. Gardner makes $450,000 and hasn't hit arbitration eligibility yet. Crawford just started a 7 year, $142 million contract. That's why the Yankees weren't interested in Crawford. He would probably have been an upgrade, but nearly enough of one to justify the massive difference in price and team control.
The real question mark for Gardner is his health. If he can play a full season, I expect he will be one of the best LFs once again. His speed and patience aren't going anywhere. The Sox will get good production from Crawford, but he's not going to be worth his contract.
Also, in looking at Crawford's contract info on Cot's, I saw something I'd never seen before. If the Sox trade Crawford, they can block his new team from trading him to the Yankees. Now that's cold.
I have to agree. That kind of money for a non-power hitting outfielder seems excessive. But not as excessive as the no-trade-to-Yankees clause. I just looked it up, that's crazy!
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